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Ukraine is facing a serious manpower problem more than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
One of the clearest signs is the sharp rise in cases involving soldiers who leave their military units without authorisation or are accused of desertion.
However, some claims about the scale of the crisis have been exaggerated or misunderstood.
A widely circulated claim says more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers fled the war within a single month. Available Ukrainian figures do not support that claim.
Instead, official statistics show that Ukraine recorded more than 161,000 criminal proceedings for unauthorised absence from military units during the first 10 months of 2025 alone. That worked out at almost 16,000 new AWOL proceedings per month. 1
Those figures are extremely serious, but they do not mean that 16,000 or 100,000 individual soldiers permanently abandoned the Ukrainian military.
What Is the Difference Between AWOL and Desertion?
This distinction is essential when discussing Ukraine's manpower crisis.
AWOL means unauthorised absence from a military unit or place of service.
Desertion is a separate offence involving an intention to abandon military service.
A soldier who leaves a unit without permission may therefore be recorded as AWOL without necessarily intending to permanently leave the armed forces.
Some soldiers have also used unauthorised absence as a way of attempting to transfer from one unit to another because of dissatisfaction with their assignment or difficulties with the military bureaucracy. 2
Therefore, the number of criminal proceedings cannot simply be converted into a number of unique soldiers who have permanently fled the war.
How Large Is Ukraine's AWOL Problem?
The scale is nevertheless substantial.
According to figures from Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office reported in November 2025, authorities had opened more than 311,000 criminal proceedings for AWOL and desertion since Russia's full-scale invasion.
The total included approximately 255,000 AWOL proceedings and 56,200 desertion cases between January 2022 and October 2025. 3
The increase became particularly pronounced in 2025.
More than 161,000 AWOL cases were recorded during the first 10 months of that year alone.
That represented roughly four times the number recorded during the same period in 2024, according to Ukrainian data analysed by Opendatabot. 4
The figures demonstrate a genuine military manpower problem, even though they should not be interpreted as a count of unique permanent deserters.
Why Are Ukrainian Soldiers Leaving Their Units?
There is no single explanation.
Ukrainian and independent analysts have identified several factors, including battlefield exhaustion, poor organisation, difficult service conditions, insufficient rotation and uncertainty about how long soldiers will have to remain in the military.
Ukraine has been fighting a large-scale war since February 2022.
Many soldiers have spent years serving under wartime conditions.
The strain becomes particularly serious when units are understaffed and soldiers receive insufficient rest.
The Centre for Eastern Studies reported in 2026 that representatives of the Ukrainian authorities put average brigade manning levels at roughly 40–60% of authorised strength, while accounts from military personnel suggested that the number of soldiers directly operating on the front line could be considerably lower. 5
This creates a difficult cycle.
Fewer available soldiers place greater pressure on those who remain.
Greater pressure can contribute to exhaustion and morale problems.
Those problems can then contribute to additional absences.
Is Ukraine Running Out of Soldiers?
Ukraine has faced a serious manpower shortage throughout the war.
Russia has a much larger population, while Ukraine has struggled to recruit enough personnel to replace casualties, rotate exhausted troops and maintain frontline positions.
The problem became increasingly important as the war continued into its fifth year.
Ukraine has therefore introduced different measures to encourage recruitment and retain existing personnel.
At the same time, the government has had to find ways to bring absent soldiers back into service.
In 2024, Ukraine introduced measures allowing some soldiers who had gone AWOL to return without facing criminal punishment under certain circumstances.
The policy reflected a difficult reality: prosecuting every absent soldier could further reduce the size of an already stretched military.
Why Are Some Soldiers Returning?
Not everyone who goes AWOL wants to permanently leave the armed forces.
Some soldiers reportedly leave because they want to change units, escape particularly difficult conditions or resolve problems with their commanders.
Ukraine has increasingly attempted to encourage such personnel to return.
In 2026, the Defence Ministry introduced a programme allowing eligible AWOL personnel to choose from a list of military units and indicate their preferred role and area of service.
The programme was designed to make returning easier and reduce bureaucratic barriers. 6
This is significant because it shows that Kyiv's objective is not simply to punish every absent soldier.
The government also wants to recover trained personnel who can return to the battlefield.
How Serious Is the Desertion Problem for Ukraine?
It is serious enough to affect military readiness.
The large number of AWOL proceedings means commanders cannot assume that every soldier assigned to a unit will remain available for duty.
That creates additional pressure on units that are already understaffed.
The problem is particularly damaging because replacing an experienced soldier is not as simple as recruiting a new person.
A newly mobilised soldier requires training and integration into a unit.
An experienced soldier already understands the equipment, battlefield procedures and relationships within the unit.
Losing experienced personnel can therefore have an impact beyond the raw number of people absent.
Does the 100,000-in-One-Month Claim Hold Up?
No.
The available evidence does not show that more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers permanently deserted within one month.
The figure appears to confuse cumulative AWOL and desertion cases with monthly numbers.
Ukraine recorded more than 100,000 relevant proceedings over extended periods, while monthly AWOL registrations during 2025 were closer to 16,000 on average. 7
Even the 16,000 monthly figure needs careful interpretation because it represents criminal proceedings, not necessarily 16,000 different soldiers.
Some individuals may appear in more than one case.
Some may return to their units.
Others may use AWOL as an illegal way to seek a transfer.
This is why responsible reporting should distinguish between cases, people and permanent desertions.
How Is Ukraine Responding?
Ukraine has pursued several approaches.
Authorities have increased criminal investigations into unauthorised absence and desertion.
At the same time, Kyiv has created mechanisms encouraging soldiers to return.
The government has also attempted to improve military administration and make transfers between units easier.
In 2026, the Defence Ministry's return programme offered AWOL soldiers a way to select from available units and positions rather than simply being sent back through the previous bureaucratic system. 8
The approach reflects the military's urgent need for manpower.
Punishment alone cannot solve the problem if the underlying causes include exhaustion, poor leadership, inadequate rotation and difficult battlefield conditions.
What Does the Crisis Mean for the War?
Manpower is one of the most important factors in a prolonged war.
Weapons, ammunition and technology matter, but armies also need enough trained personnel to operate them and hold territory.
Ukraine has increasingly relied on drones and other technologies to compensate for disadvantages in manpower.
However, technology cannot completely replace soldiers.
Infantry are still needed to occupy defensive positions, conduct assaults, protect equipment and control territory.
A continuing shortage therefore places limits on Ukraine's ability to sustain prolonged ground operations.
Could Desertion Get Worse?
It could if the underlying problems remain unresolved.
The longer the war continues, the greater the risk of exhaustion among personnel who have served for years.
If soldiers believe that rotations are inadequate or that there is no realistic end to their service, morale can deteriorate.
That could increase AWOL and desertion.
Conversely, better leadership, predictable rotations, improved conditions and more effective personnel management could reduce the pressure.
The problem is therefore not simply a question of military discipline.
It is also a question of how effectively Ukraine manages a force that has been fighting a prolonged war.
The Bigger Picture
Ukraine's desertion and AWOL problem is real, serious and increasingly important to the country's ability to sustain its war effort.
But the numbers need to be reported accurately.
The claim that more than 100,000 men fled the Ukrainian military within a single month is not supported by the available evidence.
What the data does show is a dramatic increase in unauthorised-absence and desertion proceedings.
More than 311,000 criminal proceedings had been registered since Russia's full-scale invasion by October 2025, including approximately 255,000 AWOL cases and 56,200 desertion cases. More than 161,000 AWOL proceedings were recorded during the first 10 months of 2025 alone. 9
Those numbers reveal a substantial manpower and morale problem.
But they do not mean that 311,000 unique soldiers permanently abandoned the Ukrainian army.
Some cases involve soldiers who returned.
Some involve repeat offences.
Some AWOL cases have been connected to attempts to transfer between units.
The distinction matters because exaggerated figures can obscure the real problem.
Ukraine does not need exaggerated statistics to demonstrate that it is facing a serious manpower challenge.
The documented rise in AWOL and desertion cases is already significant.
The central question for Kyiv is whether it can keep enough trained personnel in the military while recruiting new soldiers, rotating exhausted troops and maintaining morale.
As the war continues, manpower may become just as important as weapons and ammunition.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Ukraine facing a desertion crisis?
Yes. Ukraine has recorded a major increase in AWOL and desertion proceedings, particularly since 2024. The rise has added to the country's broader military manpower problems.
Did 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers desert in one month?
There is no reliable evidence supporting that claim. The available data shows approximately 16,000 new AWOL proceedings per month during much of 2025, while the larger 100,000-plus figures represent cumulative cases over longer periods. 10
How many AWOL and desertion cases has Ukraine recorded?
By October 2025, Ukrainian authorities had registered more than 311,000 criminal proceedings related to AWOL and desertion since Russia's full-scale invasion. 11
Does AWOL mean a soldier deserted permanently?
No. AWOL means unauthorised absence. Desertion is a separate offence involving an intention to abandon military service.
Why are Ukrainian soldiers going AWOL?
Reported factors include exhaustion, poor organisation, difficult service conditions, insufficient rotation and problems with military transfers. 12
Are Ukrainian AWOL soldiers being encouraged to return?
Yes. Ukraine has introduced programmes designed to encourage absent personnel to return, including a 2026 scheme allowing eligible soldiers to select from available units and roles. 13
Why does desertion matter to Ukraine's war effort?
Every experienced soldier who leaves a unit can increase the pressure on those who remain. A prolonged manpower shortage can limit Ukraine's ability to rotate troops and sustain frontline operations.
SOURCES
UK Government — Ukraine country policy information and data on military service, AWOL and desertion. 14
Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine — Statistics on unauthorised absence and desertion, reported by Ukrainian media. 15
Opendatabot — Analysis of Ukraine's 2025 AWOL statistics. 16
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) — Analysis of Ukraine's mobilisation and manpower crisis. 17
The Kyiv Independent — Reporting on Ukraine's AWOL and desertion crisis and the difficulty of determining exact numbers. 18
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